[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gaston remains nearly stationary near 31.0N 55.4W at
29/1500 UTC or about 487 nm east of Bermuda, drifting west at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is from 29N-34N between 52W-57W. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 33.2N 84.3W at 29/1500
UTC or about 160 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 32N-36N between
72W-75W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 23.6N 84.3W at 29/1500
UTC or about 110 nm west-northwest of Havana Cuba and about 150
nm west-southwest of Key West Florida moving west at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 20N-24N between 77W-86W. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1006 mb low near 17N16W to
09N22W to 09N34W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
09N34W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N
between 40W-48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern continues to be the development and track of
Tropical Depression Nine currently centered over the Florida
Straits. Please refer to the section above for details. The
depression is on the southwestern periphery of an upper-level
anticyclonic circulation centered over the eastern Gulf waters
near 23N86W. This high will allow for a slow and gradual
strengthening of the depression during the next several days. A
1010 mb surface low is centered over the northwest Gulf near
27N96W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N90W supporting
scattered moderate convection from the trough to 30N between 88W-
96W. Recent observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate
gentle to moderate northeast winds prevail across the basin.
Expect through the next 24 hours for the T.D. Nine to move
northwest over the southeast Gulf enhancing winds/seas/convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The proximity of T.D. nine currently centered over the Florida
Straits, is supporting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the northwest Caribbean mainly north of 16N
and west of 77W. This rain is affecting Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and Jamaica. Additional convection with possible heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, and mud slides are anticipated across
the islands today. An upper-level low centered over the west
Atlantic along 66W is supporting cloudiness and isolated
convection over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and their adjacent waters
mainly north of 15N between 64W-73W. To the southeast, a surface
trough extends east of the Windward Islands supporting scattered
moderate convection south of 63W and east of 65W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect
during t he next 24 hours for the surface trough over the
southeast Caribbean to continue moving west enhancing convection.
A similar weather pattern will prevail elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Divergence aloft on the edge of the upper-level low supports
isolated convection over the island at this time. This activity
will increase in the afternoon as daytime heating increases. The
low is expected to drift westward while weakening through the next
24 hours. Additional precipitation and convection with possible
heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mud slides are anticipated
across the island today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Gaston and T.D. Eight are moving across the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low
centered near 31N80W is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the western Atlantic mainly west of 73W affecting the
Bahamas. To the east; another upper-level low is centered near
23N67W. This low is reflected at the surface as a trough that
extends from 29N66W to 23N69W. Isolated convection is observed
from 20N-28N between 62W-70W. A surface trough extends east of
the Windward Islands from 14N59W to 08N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in the vicinity of this feature affecting
the islands and southeast Caribbean. The remainder of the central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N42W and a stronger
1028 mb high centered west of the Iberian peninsula near 44N14W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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