[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Gaston is centered near 30.5N 54.8W at 28/1500 UTC or
about 540 nm east of Bermuda moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 28N-32W between 50W-57W. Please
see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past
few hours in association with an area of low pressure located
about 270 miles west of Bermuda centered near 31.5N 70.0W. Satellite
imagery indicates that this low has become a tropical depression
as of 1500 UTC. T.D. Eight's estimated minimum pressure is 1009
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A
cluster of scattered moderate convection is observed from 31N-34N
between 71W-75W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

A weak area of low pressure continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms from the Florida Straits
to the northwest Caribbean mainly north of 20N between 77W-83W.
The low is centered near 24N81W, with minimum pressure of 1009 mb.
Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development
today. The low is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions could become
somewhat more conducive for development. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba through
tonight. This system has a medium chance of of tropical
development over the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N34W
to 09N37W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave
is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no significant
convection is associated to it at this time.

A tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends from 20N86W to
12N86W, moving west near 10 kt over past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within an area of moderate moisture. Isolated showers are
observed in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 17N between
82W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N34W and
continues to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the Monsoon Trough between 29W-34W and along the ITCZ
between 49W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered south of the Florida Keys.
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. A
1013 mb surface low is located over the northwest Gulf near
29N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to 25N95W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 28N between 93W-
96W. To the east; another surface trough developed as of 1500
UTC, extending from 28N89W to 23N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along this trough between 85W-90W. Expect
through the next 24 hours for the low in the northwest waters to
dissipate. The low south of the Florida Keys is expected to drift
into the southeast Gulf tonight and may become a tropical
depression in the east Gulf before turning toward the north.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details. The surface low
described in the Special Features section currently centered just
north of Cuba is enhancing scattered moderate convection across
Cuba, Jamaica and their adjacent waters mainly north of 17N
between 75W-83W. To the east; an upper-level low is reflected at
the surface as a trough that extends from the southwest Atlantic
to the northeast coast of Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Scattered light
to moderate convection prevails across east Puerto Rico, the US
Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands north of 17N between 62W-
66W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across
the basin. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail through
the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper-
level low over the southwest Atlantic will shift west toward
Hispaniola through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected as this feature approaches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Gaston, T.D. Eight and a tropical wave are moving across
the basin. Please refer to the sections above for details.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the northern
Bahamas Islands induced by the 1009 mb low centered over the
Florida Straits. This convection extends from 73W-80W. To the
southeast; an upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a
trough that extends from 24N65W to 19N66W. Scattered light to
moderate convection is along and east of the trough between 60W-
66W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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