[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fiona is centered near 25.5N 62.3W at
23/0300 UTC or about 439 nm north of the northern Leeward
Islands, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40kt. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are from
23N to 25N between 60W and 63W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gaston formed near 0300 UTC. Its center is near
12.6N 30.7W or about 391 nm west-southwest of the southernmost
Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered heavy showers are from 10N to 16N
between 27W and 34W. Please see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located about 478 nm east of the Lesser
Antilles extending from 09N to 20N with axis near 53W. The wave is
associated with a 1012 mb low located near 16N53W and has been
moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Moisture has
increased in the wave environment, which along with favorable deep
layer wind shear and upper level diffluence support scattered
showers and isolated tstms from 14N to 19N between 51W and 56W.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west- northwestward. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development late this week when the system is
expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas.

A tropical wave is in the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The
wave extends from 10N to 21N with axis near 92W and has been moving
west at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Moisture associated
with the wave and diffluence aloft generated by an upper level low
N of the Yucatan Peninsula support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms from 19N-21N east of 95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N25W. It then resumes west of Tropical
Storm Gaston near 08N34W to 10N47W. The ITCZ begins near 07N53W
and continues to 07N58W. For convection information, see the
special features and tropical waves sections.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Sacattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are in the Bay of
Campeche associated with a tropical wave that move off the
Yucatan Peninsula earlier tonight. The latest scatterometer show
fresh to strong NE winds within 190 nm off the western Yucatan
Peninsula coast associated with the passage of this wave. For
further details see the tropical waves section. A broad surface
ridge covers the eastern U.S. and extends south across the
remainder Gulf of Mexico where it is anchored by a 1021 mb high
near 27N86W. This ridge provides variable gentle flow to the NE
basin and gentle to moderate E-SE flow elsewhere N of 21N. Except
for the SW Gulf, dry air subsidence from aloft continue to
support fair weather. Winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche are
forecast to diminish later near sunrise today. Mostly gentle to
moderate E-SE winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered heavy showers and tstms are along Costa Rica and
southern Panama extending about 90 nm off its coasts. These
showers are associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough.
A moist airmass is moving across Hispaniola supporting isolated
showers and tstms mainly over southern Haiti and adjacent waters.
Unfavorable to neutral deep layer wind shear covers most of the
remainder basin, which along with strong dry air subsidence from
aloft support fair weather tonight. The gradient between high
pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over northern
Colombia continue to support fresh to strong winds S of 16N
between 68W and 82W. Moderate trade winds dominate elsewhere over
the Caribbean basin. A tropical wave and associated low are located
about 478 nm east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for development of this system late
this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola and
the southeastern and central Bahamas. See the tropical waves
section for further details.

...HISPANIOLA...

A moist airmass is moving across Hispaniola supporting isolated
showers and tstms mainly over southern Haiti and adjacent waters.
These showers are expected to cease after sunrise today, however
will resume Tuesday night as another moist airmass moves across
the Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features of interest in the basin tonight are Tropical
Storm Gaston and Tropical Depression Fiona discussed in special
features. There is a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles,
however, conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual
development during the next few days while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward. See the tropical waves section
for more details. The remainder of the area is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by several high centers N of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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