[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 230234
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

Fiona is a very disorganized tropical cyclone.  The associated deep
convection has been sputtering and lacking in organization.  The
current intensity is held at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear has been affecting the
tropical cyclone, but this shear is forecast to abate in 12 to 24
hours as the system moves away from an upper-level trough and into
a region of upper-level easterlies.  By 48 hours or so, however,
the shear over the cyclone should be increasing due to another
trough just off the U.S. east coast.  Given its current state,
Fiona is not expected to take much advantage from the reduced shear
and instead will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours,
or sooner.  The official intensity forecast is below the consensus
guidance, and follows the trend shown in the global models.

The center is not easy to locate on night time imagery, but the
best guess at the initial motion is a slightly slower 290/13 kt.
Fiona is expected to turn northwestward with some deceleration as it
heads for a break in the subtropical ridge.  The official track
forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 25.5N  62.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 25.9N  63.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 26.7N  65.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 27.7N  67.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 28.7N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 30.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 30.5N  71.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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