[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Six is centered near 15.1N 37.8W at 17/2100
UTC or about 800 nm W of the Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of center. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 11N-14N between 37W-40W. See latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 13N22W to 22N22W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing that has emerged off the
coast of West Africa between 18W-25W with 850 mb relative
vorticity maximized along the wave axis near 13N. The wave remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough and convection is confined to
that region widely scattered moderate from 09N-15N between 18W-
26W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N47W to 17N46W moving W at 20 kt. The
wave continues west as remaining energy propagating away from
Tropical Depression Six. Global model data indicates mid-level
energy is focused along the wave axis near 14N with plenty of dry
Saharan air and dust surrounding the wave. This is resulting in an
overall lack of significant deep convection...however...in the
vicinity of the Monsoon Trough axis near the southern extent of
the wave...isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between
44W- 49W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N63W to 19N63N moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with a westward surge of generally low to
middle level moisture as depicted by SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery between 60W-65W. To the east of this moisture much drier
air with embedded Saharan dust is noted E to about 50W. Isolated
moderate convection is from from 10N-14N between 59W-64W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N89W to 19N89W moving W at 20 kt.
Most of the energy associated with the wave is noted in the East
Pacific region...however scattered to numerous moderate
convection is occurring across the Yucatan peninsula...
Guatemala...and portions of southern Mexico from 15N-22N between
86W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
15N30W then from 10N39W to 08N51W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone axis extends from 08N51W to 08N59W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves...isolated moderate convection
is from 07N-09N between 35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NE Mexico
near 26N101W and is providing much of the western Gulf with a
diffluent environment aloft. This diffluence along with gentle to
moderate SE winds and peak daytime heating and instability is
generating scattered showers and tstms generally W of a line from
the central Louisiana coast near 29N91W to the eastern Mexico
coast near 20N96W. The convection spreads inland across interior
portions of eastern Texas and much of the lower Mississippi River
valley. In addition...farther east...isolated showers and tstms
are occurring N of 24N between 85W-92W. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to maintain itself through Saturday as ridging
anchors along 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the tropical wave analyzed along 90W bringing
scattered showers and tstms to the Yucatan peninsula and Guatemala
this evening...isolated showers are possible to the west of the
wave across the NW waters and portions of Central America
generally W of 83W. The remainder of the basin remains fairly
tranquil this evening...however a tropical wave noted along 64W is
increasing cloudiness and generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms between 60W-64W...including the Leeward Islands and
Trinidad and Tobago. Otherwise...mostly clear skies prevail as
generally fresh to strong trades prevail between 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
South-southwesterly flow aloft is noted over the island between an
upper level low centered over the Florida Straits near 24N81W and
an upper level ridge centered over the central Atlc near 24N61W.
A few low-level isolated showers are possible through the
overnight hours into Thursday...however mostly fair skies are
anticipated through Thursday night. Thereafter a tropical wave
currently along 64W will approach and increase cloudiness and the
possibility of precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across
the SW North Atlc generally W of 76W this evening as strong
easterly flow aloft is noted between an upper level low over the
Florida Straits near 24N81W and an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered off the coast of the Carolinas near 35N76W.
Farther east...the northern extension of a tropical wave along 64W
mainly in the Caribbean Sea is analyzed as a surface trough from
20N63W to 24N63W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 24N66W
to 28N66W. This broad area of lower pressure...embedded within
the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge anchored near
Bermuda as a 1025 mb high...is generating scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms from 20N-30N between 59W-68W. This area is
more convectively active than the parent tropical wave in the
Caribbean Sea due in large part to more favorable upper level
diffluence noted on water vapor imagery on the northern periphery
of an upper level ridge centered near 24N61W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of the previous mentioned subtropical ridge extending eastward
from the 1025 mb high along 30N to a 1021 mb high centered west of
the Madeira Islands near 31N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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