[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 19N20W to
08N20W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment
with good 700 mb signature. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-13N between 18W-25W.

Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 20N37W to 08N38N
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment as
depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave
axis is best defined at 700 mb. No convection is observed at
this time as unfavorable deep-layer wind shear inhibits
activity.

Tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles from 15N59W to
06N59W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is a low amplitude wave. The
wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave is well defined at 700 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 56W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N20W to 11N27W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to the
coast of South America near 07N58W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection
is from 06N-09N between 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Louisiana near 32N94W. A
stationary front extends SW from the low to Central Texas near
28N100W. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE surface flow.
Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W
of 90W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Florida. Isolated
moderate convection is over the SE Gulf S of 25N E of 89W to
include the Yucatan Channel, and Straits of Florida. In the
upper levels, an upper level high is centered over S Texas near
29N98W with significant upper level moisture. A small upper
level low is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W.
Upper level diffluence is over the Yucatan Channel enhancing
convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for the frontal system
to remain N of the Gulf. Areas of convection over a large
portion of the Gulf will remain.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean. See
above. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula
from 21N89W to 18N90W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean N of 17N between 81W-90W.
15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Further S, scattered
moderate convection is over N Colombia, the SW Caribbean S of
12N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough.
In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered just S
of Hispaniola near 17N71W enhancing showers. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west over the
Windward Islands with convection. Expect little change
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are presently over S Hispaniola due to the
upper level low. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
evening during maximum heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. Isolated
moderate convection is over the Central Bahamas from 22N-25N
between 76W-80W. A surface trough is over the Western Atlantic
from 30N71W to 27N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. A 1023 mb high is located overthe Western Atlantic near
33N67W. Another 1028 mb high is located over the Eastern
Atlantic near 36N26W. Expect the tropical waves to be the
dominate weather features for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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