[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
19N33W to 09N34W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
Despite the fact that TPW imagery depicts moderate moisture in
this wave's environment, no convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust and neutral to unfavorable deep-layer wind shear
combine to inhibit any activity.

A tropical wave is reaching the southeastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 15N55W to 04N56W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the
last 24 hours. TPW imagery depicts moderate moisture within this
wave. However, no significant convection is related to the
northern portion of this feature at this time as deep-layer wind
shear prevails across the area. Isolated moderate convection is
observed across the southern portion of the wave affecting
portions of Suriname mainly south of 05N between 55W-58W.

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis from
21N89W to 11N91W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral deep-layer wind
shear that supports scattered moderate convection over northern
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
10N26W to 07N40W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
07N40W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from
06N-12N between 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer
to the section above for details. A cluster of moderate
convection prevails across the northwestern Gulf mainly north of
27N between 92W-97W. This convection is associated to a 1007 mb
surface low centered over eastern Texas. This low extends a
stationary front over southern Texas and northern Mexico with
isolated showers. Across the eastern portion of the basin, an
upper-level low is centered over the Florida Peninsula enhancing
convection over the Florida Straits east of 83W. Scatterometer
data depicts a gentle to moderate southeasterly flow across the
basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low centered over the Florida Peninsula, extends
its trough reaching the western Caribbean enhancing cloudiness and
convection west of 77W. To the east; a surface trough extends from
20N72W to 11N73W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
northern portion of the trough affecting Hispaniola and adjacent
waters north of 16N between 68W-73W. To the south; the Monsoon
trough extends north of Costa Rica and Panama enhancing convection
over the waters south of 11N between 76W-82W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin
except east of 65W where gentle to moderate trades prevail. Expect
for convection to continue across the western Caribbean during the
next 24 hours supported by the same upper-level trough. The
surface trough over Hispaniola and central Caribbean will move
west while weakening.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough with axis along 72W is supporting scattered
moderate convection across the island at this time. This activity
will continuethrough the next 24 hours convection as the trough
moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. An upper-level low centered over
southern Florida is enhancing convection across the western
Atlantic mainly west of 78W. To the east; three surface troughs
were analyzed between 60W-75W with no significant convection. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by
a 1022 mb high centered near 35N60W and a 1029 mb high near
37N27W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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