[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N25W to 20N28W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low and associated troughing
centered near 10N30W. No significant deep convection is occurring
with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 07N52W to 14N51W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 50W-56W
and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the
wave axis near 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 51W-54W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N88W to 20N87W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 85W-91W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 16N-21N between 79W-
85W...and from 11N-16N between 87W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
09N30W to 09N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 09N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
12N between 08W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 24W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
North-northeasterly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf
this morning between an upper level anticyclone centered over
north-central Mexico and an upper level low centered over Andros
Island in the Bahamas near 24N78W. More importantly...a maximum in
mid-level energy is focused over the north-central Gulf waters
generating an area of scattered showers and tstms N of 25N
between 88W-96W. This area of convection is noted on the southern
periphery of a weak area of surface low pressure centered across
the Arklatex region as a 1008 mb low centered near 32N92W. This
low is expected to merge with another 1008 mb low and associated
frontal boundary centered across eastern Texas in the vicinity of
33N94W. The low pressure area is expected to move NE towards the
Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a ridge with axis extending from the Florida peninsula W-SW to the
Mexico coast near 22N98W. Generally moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly stronger S-SW winds
expected across the far NW waters through Sunday. The ridge axis
will slowly lift northward through the weekend with moderate to
fresh E-SE winds forecast early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in
the NW Caribbean waters focused on a tropical wave analyzed along
88W and mid-level energy centered over the northern portion of
the wave axis. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 14N-
22N between 76W-87W. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed
from 14N69W to 18N64W. Maximum low-level moisture convergence and
a relatively diffluent environment aloft over the eastern
Caribbean is generating isolated showers and tstms generally E of
70W and S of 14N between 70W-74W. Otherwise...trades will range
from moderate to fresh breeze levels and gradually increase
fresh to strong across the central waters on Sunday generally
between 67W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered northwest of the island near
24N78W providing moist southerly flow aloft and ample middle to
upper level instability for the region. As a result...isolated
showers and tstms are anticipated through Sunday as the upper
level feature drifts westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered over Andros Island near 24N78W
providing much of the SW North Atlc with fairly dry air and stable
conditions aloft. However...isolated showers and tstms are
occurring across the far western waters S of 30N W of 76W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under
fairly tranquil conditions this morning. Farther east...a
weakness within the subtropical ridging is analyzed as a pair of
surface troughs...one extending from 26N72W to 30N70W and the
other extending from 28N65W to 31N62W. Both boundaries are
supportive of isolated showers noted from 26N-31N between 60W-75W.
Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered across the Azores near 38N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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