[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23W
from 11N-19N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
46W/47W from 5N-13N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of a line
from 12N45W to 10N49W.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 84W south of
22N to inland over Central America moving west near 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
broad area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W and continues along 11N21W to 10N37W where
the ITCZ begins and continues to east of the tropical wave near
9N46W then resumes west of the wave near 9N48W and continues to
South America near 7N59W. Clusters of isolated moderate
convection are within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough east of
32W to the coast of Africa.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over east Texas extends a ridge axis
across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel with a
shortwave upper trough extending from the Florida panhandle near
Tallahassee to central Mississippi. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N between 86W-
94W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
north of 24N between 82W-86W. Isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida south of 24N east of
86W. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
south/central Florida to the coast of northeast Texas. The
activity over the north Gulf will continue into the weekend. The
surface ridge will shift north into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the far
west Caribbean while a second upper ridge anchored east of the
Leeward Islands covers the far east Caribbean. Wedge between
these upper ridges is an upper trough centered along the north
coast of Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north 18N to the coast of Cuba between 78W-
83W. The upper ridge over the east Caribbean is enhancing the
activity associated with a surface trough that extends from
17N60W through the Lesser Antilles between Guadeloupe and
Dominica to 11N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 150 nm west of the surface trough. The monsoon trough
extends along 10N from Colombia to Costa Rica and into the east
Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
south of 11N between 77W-81W and south of 13N west of 81W. The
easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms from 13N-20N between 68W-80W. The west Caribbean
tropical wave will move west of the area Saturday. The surface
trough will move across the eastern Caribbean through this
evening. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean
Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are developing
across the island this afternoon. The upper low is moving
northwest away from the island and will continue west through
Saturday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms scenario
will dominate the island into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low is centered along the north coast of Cuba near
22N76W, covers most of the west Atlantic into the central
Caribbean and is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms
from Cuba to 27N west of 77W to the coast of Florida and through
the Straits of Florida. A weak surface ridge extends from a 1020
mb high near 28N74W across south/central Florida into the Gulf
of Mexico. An upper trough north of 29N between 50W-70W is
supporting a dissipating stationary front that extends through
32N58W along 27N62W 29N68W to 28N72W. Isolated showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of
the front. A surface trough is southeast this front extending
from 27N52W 20N55W with isolated showers within 90/120 nm either
side of the surface trough. The Atlantic surface trough along
52W/55W will drift west through Sunday while weakening. West
Atlantic surface ridge will persist through Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net