[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N25W to 18N28W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 23W-30W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 09N47W to 20N48W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing as depicted in the
global models between 44W-52W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. No
significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 12N73W to 21N72W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 68W-78W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N33W to 06N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N43W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
13N between 14W-25W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm
either side of the axis between 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over eastern
Texas near 32N97W and is providing much of the Gulf basin with
northeasterly flow aloft. Embedded beneath this upper level
ridging is a broad mid-level low and associated energy. Satellite
imagery indicates plenty of scattered to broken clouds with
isolated showers and tstms occurring mostly north of a surface
ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula to the west-
central Gulf. The strongest convective activity is noted on
regional Doppler radar imagery N of 28N between 86W-93W.
Otherwise...the surface ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high
centered off the coast of the Florida peninsula near 26N83W
providing generally moderate anticyclonic winds with slightly
stronger S-SW winds across the NE Gulf waters. This overall
synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the basin through
Sunday as the ridge axis slowly lifts northward through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in
the NW Caribbean waters surrounding Jamaica. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring from 16N-21N between 75W-84W. Otherwise...a
surface trough analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W is
generating scattered showers and tstms across the islands and
portions of the eastern Caribbean from 12N-17N between 56W-65W.
The other important feature is a tropical wave along 72W moving
across the central Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms
generally across the waters N of 16N between 64W-75W...including
Hispaniola. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics
aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered near
17N70W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry
conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions
prevailing this morning. Trades will range from moderate to
strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N
between 70W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered south of the island near 17N70W
that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region
during the day on Thursday. Isolated showers and tstms are
anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 28N79W that supports scattered showers
and tstms occurring across the NW Bahamas and adjacent waters from
23N-30N between 75W-80W. To the northeast...an upper level trough
extends across the central North Atlc and supports a stationary
front analyzed from 32N55W to 30N62W to 31N68W. Isolated showers
and tstms are occurring from 27N-32N between 54W-68W. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE
of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to
30N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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