[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 18N21W to 07N22N
moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist environment as
depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave
axis is best defined at 700 mb. A very large area of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis
from 08N-15N between 10W-20W.

Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 20N45W to 08N45W
moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the
wave environment north of 10N. The wave axis is best defined at
700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 07N-
10N between 47W-50W.

Tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean from 20N68W to
10N69W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist
environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Isolated
moderate convection is around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from
16N-21N between 65W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
08N33W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 07N50W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection
is from 05N-09N between 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is centered along the coast of Mississippi near
30N88W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are over most of the Central Gulf of Mexico from 24N-
32N between 83W-95W. Areas of localized flooding are likely over
Louisiana, S Mississippi, and SW Alabama. Isolated moderate
convection is also over Florida, and W Cuba. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over N Alabama near
34N88W. Upper level diffluence is enhancing the convection over
the Central Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface
low to drift NW with continued convection over a large portion
of the North Central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean. See above.
Elsewhere, 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate
convection is over Jamaica. Further south, isolated moderate
convection is over N Venezuela, N Colombia, the SW Caribbean S
of 11N, Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Windward
Islands S of 14N and E of 63W due to an approaching surface
trough over the Atlantic from 16N55W to 10N56W. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the W Caribbean, while an
upper level low is centered over the E Caribbean near 17N69W.
Upper level subsidence is over most of the W Caribbean Sea.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean to continue
to have convection, while the SE Caribbean gets additional
convection due to the Atlantic surface trough.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated moderate convection is presently over Hispaniola due to
the tropical wave and the upper level low. Expect the
upper level low to be over Hispaniola Thursday with convection.
Also expect the surface trough to be SE of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to the N
Bahamas at 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
of the trough. Another surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, and area of
diffluence is east of the Windward Islands enhancing convection.
Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central
Atlantic near 31N57W with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net