[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N31W to 20N35W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the
global models between 30W-37W and a narrow maximum in 850 mb
relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis. No
significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 09N55W to 18N53W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 51W-60W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 54W-57W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N85W to 18N84W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 83W-87W
on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the
northeast over the SW North Atlc near 24N71W. Isolated moderate
convection is near 11N84W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N95W to 18N94W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is embedded within an overall moist environment with 700
mb troughing noted between 93W-96W over southern Mexico and the
far southwestern Gulf waters. Scattered moderate convection is
from 16N-20N between 92W-97W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
09N25W to 09N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 09N41W to 07N47W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-09N between 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over
the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft
E of 90W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low
pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on
a 1010 mb low centered near 31N88W. A surface trough extends SW
from the low to 29N91W. Given the low to middle level moisture
convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered showers and
tstms are occurring N of 26N between 82W-90W. Farther south...the
upper level diffluence is slightly weaker supporting isolated showers
this morning S of 25N E of 90W...including the Florida Straits.
Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc
region across the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf waters providing
generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the influence
of the low pressure area impacting the NE Gulf region. Across the
NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW winds are expected through
Wednesday. As the low pressure area across the SE CONUS weakens
through Wednesday night...surface ridging will gradually lift
northward with the axis anchoring along 27N/28N by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring W
of 85W with a weak tropical wave analyzed along 85W and scattered
showers and tstms occurring to the W of the wave axis S of 17N
between 87W-91W. Otherwise...a few isolated showers and tstms
continue to diminish across portions of Cuba and the adjacent
coastal waters N of 20N between 76W-86W. The remainder of the
basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft due to an upper
level anticyclone centered over western Hispaniola. Mostly clear
skies and fair conditions are expected through Tuesday. Trades
will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds
generally remaining S of 16N between 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
island and is providing a mostly stable and dry environment
aloft. Fair conditions and clear skies are expected through
Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N80W
with an associated trough axis extending south to over eastern
Cuba. This feature is enhancing scattered showers and tstms across
the far SW North Atlc waters S of 31N W of 75W. To the east...
mid-level diffluence is generating isolated showers and tstms
occurring from 24N-30N between 67W-74W. Otherwise...the remainder
of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N65W. Another weak
surface trough extends across the central Atlc from 24N57W to
29N53W with no significant weather occurring in the vicinity of
the boundary. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to
the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the
Azores SW to 23N47W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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