[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an
axis extending from near 20N26W to 11N26W, moving west at 5 to 10
kt. This wave is embedded in a poleward surge of moderate moisture
and a sharp 700 mb trough between 23W and 29W. The wave is also
embedded in Saharan dust, which is inhibiting convection with the
wave at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from near 18N44W to 10N45W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is embedded within a sharp 700 mb trough. Dry air covers
the northern half of the wave. No deep convection is noted with
the wave at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis
extending from near 21N74W to 11N76W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave is embedded in a moderately moist environment. Troughing
is evident at 700 mb between 73W and 78W. The wave is enhancing
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Otherwise, no deep convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with an axis
extending from near 23N82W to 14N83W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing in a moderately
moist environment. No deep convection is noted with this wave at
this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W and continues west to 11N31W, where the ITCZ
begins and then extends along 11N40W to 10N50W to 10N59W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 300 nm south and 90 nm north of the
ITCZ axis, and from 05N to 11N between 20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low over northern Florida
near 30N83W to 27N86W to 25N89W. The combination of this surface
trough and a very moist airmass supports scattered to numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms north of 24N east of 86W, and
within 150 nm of a line from 27N86W to 23N94W. Another surface
trough is located over the southwestern Gulf and extends from
23N91W to 17N94W. This trough is void of convection. Weak surface
ridging extends from the western Atlantic, across south Florida
and the central Gulf, to the northern Texas coast. Moderate to
locally fresh westerly winds cover the northeast Gulf north of the
trough axis. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the
Gulf basin this evening. Over the next 24 hours the trough over
the northeastern Gulf is forecast to drift northward with
enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity expected to continue
over the northeastern Gulf through at least Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are over the central and western
Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. Isolated moderate convection over the southwestern
Caribbean is associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.
Otherwise, the offshore waters of the Caribbean is void of deep
convection. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds cover the
majority of the Caribbean this evening. Over the next 24 hours
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
western Caribbean as the tropical waves continue to cross the
region.

...HISPANIOLA...

The combination of a departing tropical wave to the west of
Hispaniola and an upper low over the Bahamas supports scattered
thunderstorms over the island this evening. Expect an overall
decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage over Hispaniola over
the next 24 hours as the wave and upper low move away from the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of an upper low over the Bahamas and a mid level
trough along 70W between 23N and 27N supports clusters of moderate
convection from 24N to 27N between 66W and 72W. Although a
surface trough was analyzed in the vicinity of this convection,
recent scatterometer data indicate that no surface feature is
evident with this system. The upper low also supports scattered
thunderstorms south of 30N west of 77W, including the northern
Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered near 26N60W and has an axis
that extends westward across southern Florida. An upper trough
over the central Atlantic supports a complex series of surface
lows and fronts over the region. A cold front extends from near a
surface low north of our area to 31N51W to 29N55W. A warm front
extends from near the same low to 31N50W to 29N48W. Another
surface low of 1017 mb is centered near 30N43W with a weak cold
front extending from the low to 27N48W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are north of 25N between 40W and 54W. Two tropical
waves over the tropical Atlantic are referenced in the tropical
waves section above. Over the next 24 hours convection will
continue near the mid level trough over the waters northeast of
the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
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