[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 10N-22N moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No
associated deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
42W/43W from 7N-13N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within a 45 nm radius of 8N43W.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 73W/74W
from 12N-20N moving west at 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is along the leading edge of a broad surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. The north portion of this wave is now a surface trough
north of Hispaniola. See Atlantic section below.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 80W/81W from
12N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
within a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and
is embedded within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W and continues along 13N22W to 11N31W where
the ITCZ begins east of the next wave near 10N42W then resumes
west of the wave near 10N45W and continues along 9N51W to South
America near 6N57W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 60 nm of a line from 7N49W to 10N54W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 6N-11N between 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the west Atlantic near
30N80W across the northeast Gulf to the southeast Louisiana with
a surface trough at 07/0900 UTC extending from a 1010 mb low
near Cedar Key, Florida into the Gulf to near 26N84W. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-30N
east of 85W to inland over the Florida peninsula. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the remainder of the
area from 24N-30N east of 89Wto over Florida. The diurnal
surface trough extends from 23N92W through the east Bay of
Campeche to over south Mexico near 18N92W generating isolated
showers and thunderstorms south of 24N between 89W-93W to inland
over Mexico. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic
across south Florida to Texas. The surface trough over the
northeast Gulf will linger through midweek. The surface ridge
will meander from south Florida to Texas through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered over the Bahamas near 24N77W and
extends an upper trough across east Cuba to south of Jamaica
near 14N79W. An upper ridge anchored in the central Atlantic
covers the east Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are off the coast of Nicaragua from 13N-15N between 80W-83W. A
surface low is south of Panama generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 10N east of 82W to inland over
Panama and to the coast of Colombia. Isolated showers and
possible thunderstorms are within 90 nm along the south coast of
the Dominican Republic. The west tropical wave will move out of
the Caribbean by Monday. The east tropical wave will reach the
west Caribbean on Monday. The next tropical wave will approach
the east Caribbean by midweek.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across most of the island this morning with
some possible isolated showers along the Dominican Republic's
Coasts. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through today
along the north coast as the surface trough, previously part of
the tropical wave, moves west just north of the island. Skies
should clear early on Monday as the tropical wave and surface
trough move away from the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The north portion of the central Caribbean is now a surface
trough that extends from 25N69W to 20N71W. The upper ridge that
covers the east Caribbean is anchored near 22N63W and is
providing difflunce aloft. This coupled with the surface trough
are generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 20N-25N between 67W-72W with isolated showers
and thunderstorms from 22N-24N between 63W-67W. An upper trough
over the north/central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that
enters the region near 32N40W along 28N43W to 29N48W where it
becomes stationary to beyond 32N52W. Clusters of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-30N between 52W-
57W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm southeast of the cold front. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
high northeast of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
32N32W, south of the above front along 24N44W to a 1020 mb high
near 26N62W continuing west across south Florida into the Gulf
of Mexico. The surface trough over the southwest Atlantic will
drift northwest to north through midweek, disrupting the surface
ridge across the west Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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