[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 060835
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

The center of Earl made landfall near 0200 UTC just south of
Veracruz, Mexico.  Since then, the center has moved farther inland
and the cloud pattern has decayed.  There is little data near the
center at this time, so it is estimated that the intensity has
decreased to 35 kt.  Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the
low-level circulation of Earl should dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico after 12 hours.  The remnants of Earl are expected to move
westward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the
Pacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a
tropical cyclone in that area in 2-3 days time.

The initial motion is 275/9, and a general westward motion is
forecast until the cyclone dissipates.

The main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy
rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large
portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico.  The rain
threat will continue after the cyclone dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 19.0N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 19.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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