[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.0N 95.9W at 06/0300 UTC
or about 20 nm southeast of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 7
kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gust to 60 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
Earl was expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz
and Alvarado, Mexico. The main threat from Earl will continue to
be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides
across a large portion of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are in the Gulf waters south of a line from 23N98W to 19N91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave off the coast of Africa extends along 18W/19W from
10N-20N moving west near 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is leading a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N-13N between 17W-20W.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W
from 6N-15N moving west 10-15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 5N-10N between 31W-36W.

Tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles extends along
61W/62W from 11N-20N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 17N-20N between 60W-63W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 15N-22N between 58W-67W.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 70W/71W
from 12N-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
is trailing a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and
is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from over Haiti to the Turks and Caicos from
17N-22N between 71W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N16W and continues along 9N26W to 7N39W where
the ITCZ begins and continues to 8N55W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 8N-10N between 36W-38W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N
between 24W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern tonight is the rainfall from Tropical Storm
Earl. See special features above. A shortwave upper trough is
moving south from South Carolina to central Alabama generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N east
of 88W to inland over Florida and the north Gulf coast. A weak
surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across Florida to
Texas with a 1015 mb high near 28N87W. Tropical Storm Earl is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late Saturday and
dissipated by Sunday morning. The surface ridge will meander
across the Gulf through the weekend. A series of weak surface
troughs will pass east across the northeast Gulf through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Caribbean near
19N85W extending to the central Caribbean near 15N77W while an
upper ridge anchored in the central Atlantic covers the east
Caribbean. An upper low is centered between the Bahamas and east
Cuba extending south over the north-central Caribbean from east
Cuba to Hispaniola. The upper ridge over the west Caribbean is
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 14N-20N west of 81W to inland over
the Yucatan. The activity over the northeast Caribbean is
associated with the two tropical waves. The tropical wave over
the central Caribbean will reach the west Caribbean Saturday
night and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night. The tropical
wave over the Lesser Antilles will reach the central Caribbean
on Sunday night and the west Caribbean on Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over Haiti with isolated
showers over the remainder of the island tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through today and Sunday as the next
tropical wave moves over the island. Skies will clear Monday as
the two tropical waves move away from the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1027
mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
32N30W to a 1020 mb high near 27N39W then west to a 1021 mb high
near 27N55W continuing west across Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. Surface ridge will meander across the north portion of
the west Atlantic through the weekend. The north portion of the
tropical waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of
the Greater Antilles through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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