[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.3N 92.3W at 05/0600 UTC
or about 35 nm southwest of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico and about
120 nm east of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico moving west-northwest at 9
kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gust to 45 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
Earl is currently inland over south Mexico. The main threat from
Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf waters
south of 23N between 89W-95W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was introduced inland over Africa.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 19N49W
to 8N51W moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 45 nm of line from
16N50W to 17N52W.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 62W from 11N-
21N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
trailing a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Wave is along the western edge of an
upper ridge enhancing any shower activity. See Caribbean section
below.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W and continues along 9N25W 6N36W to 6N40W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 5N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 200 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 19W-23W, within 90 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 27W-33W, and from 10N-12N between 29W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern tonight is the rainfall from Tropical Storm
Earl. See special features above. An upper ridge is anchored
over the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana covering the Gulf north
of 24N east of 94W. A weak surface trough extends from a 1013 mb
low inland over south Georgia across the Florida panhandle near
Tallahassee to 26N86W generating clusters of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms north of 28N east of 90W with
isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the surface trough.
A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across south
Florida to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will persist into
the weekend. Tropical storm winds will soon be across the
southern Bay of Campeche then shift west through early Friday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Anticyclonic flow over the west Caribbean is associated with
Tropical Storm Earl while an upper ridge anchored in the
Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is
centered over the Turks and Caicos extending south over the
north-central Caribbean from the Windward Passage to over
Hispaniola. The upper ridge associated with Earl is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from 12N80W to
18N84W including portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the remainder of the west
Caribbean north of 11N west of 79W. The upper ridge over the
east Caribbean is generating isolated showers north of 11N east
of 65W. The winds associated with Tropical Storm Earl will
continue will diminishing and the seas subsiding as Earl
continues to move further away. The tropical wave over the east
Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Friday night and the
west Caribbean Saturday night. A second tropical wave will enter
the east Caribbean Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Showers and thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening
have diminished across the island leaving the skies clear
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will return early this
morning as the tropical wave moves toward the island. This
activity will encompass the entire island by Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
32N35W 27N50W then west to a 1022 mb high near 27N60W continuing
west across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. The north portion of the tropical
waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the
Greater Antilles through Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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