[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031743
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.8N 85.6W at 03/1800 UTC
or about 50 nm ESE of Isla Roatan Honduras and about 160 nm ESE of
Belize City Belize moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 12N-20N between 80W-89W. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N35W to 18N34W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W with a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 34W-43W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N49W to 20N48W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing as depicted in
global model analyses between 45W-53W with a low-level circulation
center focused on a 1014 mb low centered along the wave axis near
14N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between
49W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from near 14N21W to 12N30W to 08N37W
to 12N48W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N51W to 09N61W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...isolated moderate convection is from 09N-11N
between 57W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower
Mississippi River valley near 31N90W that is providing much of
the Gulf with E-NE flow aloft maintaining mostly fair conditions
for a majority of the basin this afternoon. However...given
instability and possible embedded weak areas of diffluence in the
ridging...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
eastern Gulf waters N of 23N E of 90W and scattered showers and
tstms across the north-central coast N of 28N between 87W-93W. At
the surface...a ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region
along 29N/30N to eastern Texas generating light to occasional
moderate NE to E winds. Little change is expected through
Wednesday night in the synoptic pattern. Tropical Storm Earl will
approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize Wednesday
night into Thursday morning tracking W-NW into the far southern SW
Gulf waters by Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W
across the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades trail
to the east of Earl between 68W-80W due to the pressure gradient
between high pressure anchored to the north across the SW North
Atlc region and low pressure across northern South America.
Trades decrease gradually E of 70W into moderate to fresh breeze
levels as mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon. Earl is
expected to approach the coast of Belize on Wednesday night
bringing numerous showers and scattered tstms...and potentially
localized flooding and mud slides to portions of Honduras...
Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula during the
remainder of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are
expected during the next 24 to 48 hours as stable upper level NW
flow continues.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Weak middle to upper level troughing is focused over the southern
Florida peninsula and Florida Straits generating isolated showers
and tstms across the SW North Atlc waters generally S of 27N W of
78W this afternoon. To the north...a frontal boundary extends
offshore of the Carolinas and continues to support scattered
showers and tstms from 30N to the front along 34N generally W of
70W. Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under the
influence of a surface ridge with axis extending along 28N/29N to
the Florida peninsula. Farther east...the ridge broadens covering
much of the eastern and central Atlc discussion waters north of
20N anchored by a 1028 mb high centered S of the Azores near
35N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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