[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1000 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N47W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N50W 20N60W...
BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING FROM 20N60W TO 20N72W ALONG
THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12
FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1000 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT. A SEPARATE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N57W 25N60W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N44W 30N42W BEYOND 32N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME 27N44W 32N42W LINE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 06N16W AND 05N20W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 05N20W TO 04N29W TO 03N38W AND 02N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N FROM 16W EASTWARD...FROM 02N TO 06N
BETWEEN 16W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS MOVED FROM MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 28N AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...
TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 28N NORTHWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN
BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IN AREAS FROM 30N SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...
MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...
IFR IN MILTON. LIFR IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN DESTIN. MVFR IN MARY
ESTHER. LIFR IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN
MARIANNA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND
BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE
25/1800 UTC.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W NEAR THE
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...FOR TODAY.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...MOVING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY TWO AND IT WILL END UP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. A
TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND
EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST
RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE...AND ON DAY
TWO ALSO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING PRACTICALLY ALL OF
DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
TO 20N23W AND 12N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N28W...TO 21N38W 14N46W AND 10N54W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N47W 20N72W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE 31N47W 20N72W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N74W TO 27N72W AND 21N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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