[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DEVELOPING GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO
23N60W TO 20N65W. LOW PRES NEAR 27N54W 1008 MB. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 07N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM
01N TO 06N. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 04N22W TO 05N32W AND 03N39W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 01N TO 04N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 04W AND
07W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 11W EASTWARD...AND FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 17W
AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SIX HOURS
AGO...NOW IS WEAKER AND LESS DISTINCT...ALONG 90W JUST OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV...KEMK...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY END UP
FORMING IFR CEILINGS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FROM WESLACO
EASTWARD...IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR IN THE AREAS OF ALICE...
KINGSVILLE...AND CORPUS CHRISTI. IFR IN ROCKPORT. MVFR IN
VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...PALACIOS...BAY CITY...ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO CONROE AND
HUNTSVILLE. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
FLORIDA...LIFR NEAR MILTON AT WHITING FIELD AND IN CRESTVIEW.
MVFR IN DESTIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO
19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 19N51W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
16N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000
UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT
25/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO... A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1400 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO
PLATA...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
NORTHWEST WIND...BECOMING WEST WIND...AND SOUTHWEST WIND.
DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND IT WILL END
WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF
THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL
END UP BEING ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH
HAS CLEARED THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY
ONE WILL START WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND A TROUGH...
PROGRESSING TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AFTER THE EARLIER NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF THE DAY.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF DAY TWO. IT WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...AGAIN...DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WITH THE RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 22N62W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W 31N53W 22N60W 21N70W 26N80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N63W AND 20N65W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 17N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN BERMUDA.

BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 42N34W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N33W TO 31N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N28W 25N35W
23N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N24W 27N27W 25N40W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 28N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...PASSING
THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N27W...TO 20N29W AND 11N29W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM A
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N41W...TO 19N51W...
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N64W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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