[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N22W TO 04N30W
02N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR
27N104W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS
BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA OF ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
32N75W-TO-NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TROUGH.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 25N80W 28N89W 30N92W.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THE
MOMENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIGHT RAIN IN EDINBURG. NEARBY
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER IN MCALLEN. FROM LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN PERRY. IFR IN
BROOKSVILLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA... THROUGH
NORTHERN NICARAGUA...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N81W 17N82W 14N82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND...AND FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 4000 FEET...VFR...
AT 24/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.
LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER...A CLOUD CEILING AT
2000 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER...A CLOUD CEILING AT
8000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND
FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A
TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY
ONE. THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE START OF DAY
ONE...AND THEN IT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY AND THEN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...GIVING
THE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO...AS THE EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST
6 TO 12 HOURS OF DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AGAIN AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE RETURNS BY THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 25N80W 28N89W 30N92W. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N74W
28N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT ALONG 30N72W 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 69W.

BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N41W. A 991 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 42N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N27W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N27W TO 24N40W 21N50W
20N60W...AND TO 21N71W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N45W AND 29N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N30W 27N42W 26N67W 24N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N30W...TO 20N40W AND 19N51W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...ALONG 30N67W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N59W...AND TO 26N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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