[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...TO 09N18W AND 06N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 06N22W TO 04N30W 02N45W...AND ALONG 50W NEAR THE EQUATOR IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 05N23W 04N31W 03N37W...FROM 02N TO 04N FROM 48W
WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
BORDER AREA OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...TO 27N85W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 28N NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N90W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO NEAR 26N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N84W 28N84W
25N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KIKT. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
CRESTVIEW. IFR AT THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT TO THE NORTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN PERRY. MVFR IN
BROOKSVILLE. IFR AT THE ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT IN ST. PETERSBURG
AND AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE TAMPA-
ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA...AT PAGE
FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS...AND IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-
GUATEMALA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST WIND FLOW REACHES
83W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
NORTHERN NICARAGUA BEYOND HISPANIOLA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 16N TO CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...AND
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS...ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 66W AND 82W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW CLOUDS
AT 2000 FEET...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT
22/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...A CLOUD CEILING AT 8000 FEET AND AT 30000
FEET...VFR...AT 23/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...VFR. LA ROMANA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000
FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...A HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS...VFR. SANTIAGO...A CLOUD CEILING AT 1700 FEET...
MVFR...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...A CLOUD
CEILING AT 1800 FEET...MVFR...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. DAY
TWO WILL START WITH NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. DAY TWO WILL START
WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...THAT WILL BECOME WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE DAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST WIND FLOW RIGHT AT THE
END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH...AND STAY TO THE SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N35W
TO 24N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 25N40W AND 22N50W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
22N50W TO 21N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N30W 22N40W 21N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N35W 23N44W 22N58W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N24W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N31W 22N50W COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N31W 22N50W COLD FRONT.
THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N67W TO 26N58W AND 24N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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