[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Apr 18 00:57:02 CDT 2016


AXNT20 KNHC 180556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W...TO 04N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N19W TO 02N32W AND 01N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN
13W AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 20W AND
35W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W EASTWARD. THIS NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. SOME OF THE NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES DOWNSTREAM WITH SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 34N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...INTO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO CENTRAL CUBA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KVAF...KVQT...AND KGRY.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KXIH...KVBS...KHHV...KEMK...
KGUL... KHQI...KEHC...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IFR IN
PORT ISABEL. MVFR FROM FALFURRIAS TO KINGSVILLE TO ALICE. IFR
FROM ROBSTOWN TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...TO
ROCKPORT...PORT LAVACA. MVFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS. IFR IN
BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN GALVESTON...BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN...
SUGARLAND...AND FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND
GALLIANO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES FROM BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-
EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST WIND FLOW REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL
NICARAGUA BEYOND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N69W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 2200 FEET...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 4000
FEET...VFR...AT 18/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 18/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 1800 FEET...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT 7000 FEET. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND
FLOW...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DAY TWO WILL
CONSIST OF...FIRST...WEST WIND FLOW AND THEN SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN PANAMA BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS A TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA EARLY DURING DAY
ONE...AND THE TROUGH WILL STAY THERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE
CUTTING ACROSS CUBA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF
DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF
DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND/OR BE PUSHED WESTWARD
DURING DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...SENDING
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 34N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES 32N53W TO 24N60W 21N68W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING
FROM 21N68W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN BERMUDA.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND
60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...BEYOND THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 37N18W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N20W AND 23N30W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 23N30W TO 25N40W...TO 32N53W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N17W 20N30W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N41W...TO 16N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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