[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N11W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N10W...WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-02S BETWEEN 21W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N81W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO CENTRAL CUBA. 10-25 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS THE LIGHTEST
WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N
AND E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF AND SE TEXAS IN
24 HOURS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT OVER SE TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W WITH
CONVECTION. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE N DUE TO
THE TAL END OF A COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO 23N67W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE
OF THE LOW TO 26N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-
29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AT 31N54W AND EXTENDS S TO THE WARM FRONT AT 26N58W. A 1011 MB
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N23W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
ALONG 30N24W 25N30W 25N40W 26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BEYOND
31N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-
53W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N33W. ANOTHER
1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N17W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 55W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
25N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL ATLANTIC
FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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