[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
AFTER 12/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
NEAR GALE OR LOCALLY GALE EXPECTED IN MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 06N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N12W...TO
04N18W 04N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 01S36W AND 01S41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N TO 15W AND 30W...AND FROM 05N TO 03S
BETWEEN 36W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS INLAND...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM GEORGIA
NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT SOME OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 20N96W 26N91W 28N93W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...KGLS AND KVBS.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KXIH...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KGRY...KATP...
KSPR...KMDJ...KVKY...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...A COLD FRONT IS IN SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. MVFR IN WESLACO. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN
VICTORIA AND PALACIOS AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR IN
GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND IN JASPER. IFR IN
HUNTSVILLE. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AND
SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE
CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IN GALLIANO. MVFR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING IN BATON ROUGE. IFR IN
SLIDELL. MOSTLY MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
IFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION JOINT RESERVE BASE.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. GULFPORT
AND BILOXI HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAIN AND THUNDER DURING THE LAST
FEW OBSERVATIONS. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIGHT RAIN IN
GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN
AREA. MVFR IN MILTON AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD.
DRIZZLE IN MARY ESTHER.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THAT
INCLUDES BERMUDA...THE BAHAMAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N... ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N69W 24N69W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA...ALONG
78W/79W...FROM 16N TO 19N. TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA AND IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF 11N61W
17N70W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W IN CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.12 IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.05 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS NOW. AN EARLIER OBSERVATION REPORTED TOWERING
CUMULUS CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. PUNTA CANA...
LIGHT RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...NEARBY
RAINSHOWERS.
PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. WEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE
WILL START WITH VARIABLE WINDS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF DAY ONE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FROM THE END OF DAY ONE UNTIL THE END OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA THAT
INCLUDES BERMUDA...THE BAHAMAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/ NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N69W 24N69W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
NORTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 18N TO 25N
BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 27N28W TO CENTRAL COASTAL
MOROCCO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N70W TO 30N77W TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF BELIZE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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