[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE BASIN IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA STARTING AT 0600 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE...THEN WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-11 FT DURING
THE STRONGEST WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 04N17W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 24W AND 38W THEN TO 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S TO 03N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER
NEAR 29N87W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR FAVORING FAIR
WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT CLIPS THE EASTERN GULF INTO EARLY SUN. NEW HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS MOVING NE TOWARDS ATLC WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF WATERS
TUE AT SUNRISE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS
TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N77W. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE TRADEWIND FLOW
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HAITI.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IS ACROSS THE
WATERS. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA LATER THIS MORNING...AS IS DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS
TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N77W COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW TODAY
SUN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN THE AREA THROUGH MON. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 25N74W...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH N OF 20N WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W
AND 68W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N63W TO OFFSHORE
WATERS OF NW HAITI BY SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN WILL STALL INTO
MON. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OFF THE NE
FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING...MERGING WITH THE LEAD
COLD FRONT SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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