[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND ALONG PART OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
CANARIAS UNTIL 09/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THAT FOLLOW 09/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W...TO 08N15W 05N14W AND 02N19W. THE ITCZ IS NOT
PRESENT AT THIS TIME. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
03S28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 02S26W
AND 01S26W...AND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 03S32W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 11W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 12W
AND 36W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02S TO 07S BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
30N74W. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FROM 30N74W...TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 25N87W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO 23N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N60W 23N66W...TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 91W
EASTWARD.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N94W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 89W
WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD TO
17N73W...AND THEN IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...FROM AN EARLIER
TROUGH IN THE AREA...CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 80W...AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.19 IN GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...1800 FEET...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1800 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
THAT SPANS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DURING DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN FROM THE WEST DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N54W...TO 26N46W AND 23N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N51W
TO 27N54W 25N58W AND 22N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DISCOVERED IN
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA ALONG 23N64W 20N63W 18N63W NEAR ANGUILLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N53W 26N57W 20N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
MOROCCO TO 26N16W...TO 21N26W 09N36W AND 01N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 29N47W 25N49W
AND20N57W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
25N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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