[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA UNTIL 02/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N14W TO 06N16W AND 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N17W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 19W...TO 02S21W 03S30W
02S36W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
FROM 10N17W 05N37W 04N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 89W/90W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGLS...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KEHC...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KHHV...KGBK...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT...
KVOA...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR/LIFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY. IFR IN FALFURRIAS. MVFR IN
ROCKPORT. IFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON...AND IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. MISSISSIPPI...IFR.
ALABAMA...LIFR IN GULF SHORES. IFR ELSEWHERE. FLORIDA...A
MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LIFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. IFR IN PERRY. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND IN PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 18N63W...AND 13N63W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 01/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AT 01/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...RAINSHOWERS ARE NEARBY.
LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE BEGINNING OF
DAY ONE. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 82W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N69W...TO
20N64W 18N63W...AND 13N63W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 26N...TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST...BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
31N40W 31N50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W 29N40W AND 28N47W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM
28N47W TO 28N56W AND 27N61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N32W 28N40W 27N48W 25N60W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 15N34W AND 13N44W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 250 NM TO
500 NM TO THE NORTH OF 20N17W 14N28W 12N42W 14N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N23W TO A SECOND 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N32W...TO 27N42W AND 27N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N69W...ACROSS ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N81W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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