[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN IS LOCATED AT 26.5N 70.8W AT 1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 369 NM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MOVING W AT 4 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N20W TO
10N24W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 15W-28W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
9N30W TO 10N35W TO 9N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N42W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA
...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND SE GULF...E OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N88W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS
AT 32N94W TO CENTRAL MEXICO AT 21N105W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
OVER THE GULF WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW
OVER THE NW GULF TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LOW TO MOVE NE TO SOUTH CAROLINA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N86W TO
BELIZE AT 18N89W TO EL SALVADOR AT 13N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO INCLUDE W
CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A
SOUTHERN BAND OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN.
SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E... A 1009 MB LOW THE REMNANTS OF T.S.IDA IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO
THE LOW CENTER TO 22N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N26W TO 25N40W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 36N55W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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