[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF INTEREST IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND BERMUDA
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 68.7W AT 28/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 350 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N69W TO 28N65W AND
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO 26N94W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WELL DEFINED 1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
23N88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN TO
21N88W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N85W OVER CUBA TO
22N84W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 27N E OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. UPPER WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES N FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST...
FLORIDA..AND THE SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N36W MOVING W-SW 5-10 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 30W-40W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 12N20W 12N30W THEN THROUGH THE 1012 MB
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N36W TO 9N41W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-21W...FROM 5N-
9N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W COVERS
THE GULF W OF 88W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES INTO THE GULF THROUGH A 1007
MB LOW NEAR 28N94W TO 26N91W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO OVER SW LOUISIANA AND E
TEXAS BETWEEN 92W-95W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA NEAR 22N82W THEN INTO THE W ATLC OVER MIAMI
FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH
AND 1007 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS BELOW THIS UPPER
RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E
OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 94W AND
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N94W ALONG 24N91W TO 27N89W. THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN SHIFT S ON WED. THE LOW N OF
THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N TONIGHT THEN N-NE MON AND
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W
INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
JUST E GUADELOUPE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS PULSING EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W
VENEZUELA. THE LOW N OF THE YUCATAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N BUT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE ISLAND
HAVE DISSIPATED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N77W COVERING THE
W ATLC W OF 73W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS JUST TO THE E OF
UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N
BETWEEN 37W-52W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N38W TO 31N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N53W
TO BEYOND 32N66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 54W-66W.
A UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N50W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N59W THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N44W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF
IDA...NEAR 24N49W ALONG 21N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N37W TO 27N41W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 47W-
54W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY
A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N30W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WILL
CONTINUE NW TONIGHT AND MON THEN TURN N-NW AND BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN BEGINS TO SHIFT N OUT
OF THE AREA LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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