[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 272336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
post-tropical cyclone Ida, located about 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A well-defined low pressure system located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms
that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico southward across
western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. However, only a slight deviation of
the motion toward the northeast would place the system in less
hostile environmental conditions.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this large disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast, Florida, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low on Monday, if necessary. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized
today in association with a low pressure system that is located
about midway between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Additional
development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression
could form tonight or on Monday while the low moves slowly toward
the northwest. By Tuesday, development is not expected due to
unfavorable upper-level winds. For more information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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