[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 48.0W AT 27/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 920 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 45W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 50W-54W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF INTEREST IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND BERMUDA
WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N69W AND IS SUPPORTING A
1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N68W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N67W
TO 28N68W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 62W-70W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES N-NW TO NW BEFORE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 36W FROM 7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N26W TO 11N37W
WHICH IS THE RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W ALONG 12N19W 10N26W 11N30W TO E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 10N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N39W AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 25W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 8W...FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DEL RIO
THEN OVER NE MEXICO COVERING THE GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N92W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W TO 23N92W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W
OF 91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF
THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N89W CONTINUING TO NE GUATEMALA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 88W-
92W E OF 88W FROM OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO OVER THE SE
CONUS. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NW THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN N-NE THROUGH
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-88W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N84W ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 21N80W INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED JUST E GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
PULSING EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. THE LOW OVER
THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LESS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TODAY BUT DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N80W TO BEYOND 32N79W COVERING THE W ATLC W
OF 73W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 25N69W AND IS
SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF GUADELOUPE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W-70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N31W. THE 1010 LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW OR NW THROUGH TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NE BY MIDWEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net