[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 271136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

An area of low pressure over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
an upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development while this system moves
northward toward the northern Gulf Coast during the next
couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today,
if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 425 miles
south-southwest of Bermuda.  Some additional development of this
system is possible and this system could become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves toward
the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, development is not
expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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