[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR
21.7N 45.3W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335
DEGREES...3 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA
ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 34W
AND 40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WAVE
TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW
IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 11N20W AND 09N28W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 08N31W 07N35W 08N41W 07N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 11N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN INLAND GEORGIA 33N84W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N83W...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WATERS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 91W
FROM 24N NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 24N97W
20N95W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN FLORIDA
LATER TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N76W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA...TO WESTERN SECTIONS
OF JAMAICA...TO COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM
25N IN SOUTH FLORIDA BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 16N85W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W WESTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...ONCETHE SYSTEM REACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.95 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W
AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-COSTA RICA RIDGE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO ONE HOUR
AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA-TO-CUBA RIDGE...AND THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE FLOW OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W
AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 21N
TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND
70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO
27N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N17W TO 31N24W...TO 30N29W
28N34W...TO A 26N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N45W NEAR T.D. IDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N15W
22N30W 18N40W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR T.D. IDA IS
COVERED SEPARATELY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N19W TO 32N32W 32N50W 27N61W
27N75W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AND FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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