[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N
48.6W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...OR 105
DEGREES...4 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA
ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 270 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N21W 13N23W
11N25W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
AND THE GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W 07N30W AND 07N40W. NO M
ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N
TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 26N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N
NORTHWARD...AND FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N110W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM
100W WESTWARD.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 19N82W 15N78W 11N73W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N79W 12N81W 16N84W...
FROM THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS TO EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
HONDURAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...IN BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA 19N82W 15N78W 11N73W TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND JAMAICA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/HAITI.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
DAY TWO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 26N67W EVENTUALLY BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25N67W AT
THE END OF DAY TWO. THIS SITUATION WILL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 26N74W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W...TO NORTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...TO 30N74W AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 270 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N54W 30N55W 34N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N22W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 20W AND
24W...AND FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 24N23W...
23N43W...AND BEYOND 32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net