[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 46.3W AT 20/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 955 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT
15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 41W-45W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N17W ALONG 10N20W TO 7N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 24W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO NE
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA ACROSS THE W TIP OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 28N89W IN THE N GULF AND IS PROVIDING ENERGY FOR
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA THEN W INTO SE
LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF LOUISIANA. AN NARROW UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS S FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR MERIDA MEXICO ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N83W TO 26N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVERS THE GULF N OF LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 22N87W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE ABOVE
LINE. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT THE GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W
OF 84W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N78W
COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 73W-83W. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...
CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO
HAS MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S
COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 9N W OF 72W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC WILL SUPPORT GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W ACROSS S FLORIDA/
FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED TO THE SE NEAR 22N73W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N65W AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO
25N76W THEN WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 26N73W TO 32N67W. A WEAK
1015 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N61W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N56W THROUGH THE UPPER LOW TO 29N58W.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. NINE IS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 19N53W WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 24N54W. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-
24N BETWEEN 53W-56W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 53W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER T.S. IDA EXTENDS N ALONG 25N45W TO BEYOND 32N49W
AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 44W-53W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A WEAK RIDGE
ALONG 23N/25N WILL PERSIST E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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