[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 20/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N
43.6W OR ABOUT 1130 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT
13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 37W-43W. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO
10N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS AXIS AT
THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
EXTENDS E REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE E...A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE EASTERN US COAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A
SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY THIS SAME TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THIS TROUGH AFFECTING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GULF WATERS S OF 23N. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF...A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N91W. A LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE E. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY W OF 80W.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N
BETWEEN 74W-81W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SW OF THE ISLAND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US COAST SUPPORTS A
1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENDING NEAR
25N82W. THIS SURFACE FEATURES COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORT ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N58W. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
GENERATED E OF THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 42W-53W. IN THE
PROXIMITY IF THIS CONVECTION...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 19N52W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N52W.
T.S. IDA CONTINUES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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