[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Sep 18 21:38:47 CDT 2015
WTNT44 KNHC 190238
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015
There is little to add about the depression that has not been
already said, except that it is a resilient system. Satellite and
buoy data indicate that the depression has a well-defined cyclonic
circulation with winds of 25 kt, and is still producing bursts of
deep convection. Given the unfavorable shear environment surrounding
the depression, the NHC forecast insists on weakening, and calls for
the depression to become a remnant low on Saturday.
The low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest
or 300 degrees at 8 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should
keep the depression on this general motion until dissipation in a
couple of days. No change in track or intensity from the previous
forecast is necessary.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.8N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 20.0N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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