[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 15.0N 43.1W AT
16/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 1055 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING
NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISPLACING
CONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
40W-50W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1010 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR
11N28W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N28W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
6N28W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 26W-35W.
RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 9N-21N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 65W-71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 71W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS ALONG 88W FROM
14N-23N MOVING NW A 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE W
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE COVERED IN MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
80W-86WW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 17N16W AND EXTENDS TO THE 1010 MB LOW AT 11N28W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 12N38W TO 14N43W...AND FROM 13N45W TO 10N50W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 59W-
62W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM 29N85W TO
24N87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND EASTERN GULF E OF 88W.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
23N98W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THEY MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SHIFT W TO HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AND ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW ARE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N55W TO 28N61W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N47W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 48W-51W. A 1020 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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