[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161214
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N43W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N-17N MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 39W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1011 MB LOW S-SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR
10N27W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N-15N MOVING W-
NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 25W-33W. THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 68W FROM 11N-21N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 64W AND
70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W FROM
14N-23N OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CARIBBEAN...AND N HONDURAS
MOVING NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES
THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE COVERED IN MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 83W-87WW...AND FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 88W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W THROUGH THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND WAVE NEAR 10N49W AND
CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS/TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA TO OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN 84W-94W. THIS IS CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO S FLORIDA COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE...IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING
FROM 29N86W TO 25N87W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE...WILL STALL ALONG 88W BY WED NIGHT
THEN STRETCH FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE S/CENTRAL GULF BEGINNING
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N W OF 76W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE HAITI AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING A UPPER TROUGH S ALONG 16N76W TO
OVER W PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA FROM 76W-78W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W PANAMA W OF 80W...W HONDURAS W OF 86W...AND
GUATEMALA. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY WED. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THE W CARIBBEAN THU. WEAKENED RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL DIMINISH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU
THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH THE E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL
SHIFT NE WED AND OPEN INTO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI.
MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
FROM OVER PUERTO RICO ACROSS THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND
THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISHING THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO 30N AND IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA. A REMNANT DYING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 29N80W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-32N W OF
77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N61W TO 24N63W. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N58W TO 25N67W AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 51W-67W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N43W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 40W-49W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N37W. W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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