[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC NEAR 10N36W ALONG WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 16N35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND
42W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER TODAY. ITS
AXIS IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20W. CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WHICH
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
05N TO 10N E 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N35W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N36W...MOVING W AT
ABOUT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...PLEASE REFER TO THIS
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 320 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
76W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE
MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION HINDER
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N36W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N47W. FOR CONVECTION
INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 26N81W TO 25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N91W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 85W AND 95W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SUPPORTED BY THE LOW AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT N-NE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NW GULF WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT WINDS IS
OBSERVED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS NEAR 75W.
EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS
CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTEND S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
CUBA OFFSHORE WATERS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SIMILAR
CONVECTION OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE
SW BASIN...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND
76W...N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND
87W. THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
EXTEND S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
THAT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N75W TO A 1016 MB
LOW NEAR 27N79W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 30N73W
TO ANDROS ISLAND. BOTH FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 70W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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