[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 60.4W AT
09/2100 UTC OR 250 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-SE AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. T.D. EIGHT IS
EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SW THUS THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 29N55W TO 33N60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
20N26W ALONG 15N28W TO 20N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 15N TO OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF THE WAVE TO 64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 74W/75W
FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 10N35W TO 10N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE
EXTENDS FROM 17N49W TO 13N51W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO
54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR
25N91W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AND S
TO OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WEDGE BETWEEN
TWO STRONG UPPER RIDGES...ONE ANCHORED OVER W MEXICO AND THE
SECOND OVER W CUBA. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF A VERY DIFFLUENCE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ON THU ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE E INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND IS ANCHORED
OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING
FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO
THU. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS W CUBA
OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N76W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N
AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 69W-77W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
32N71W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W THEN W OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 59W-70W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N44W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 45W-52W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
T.D. EIGHT WILL CONTINUE N. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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