[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR
24.9N 43.2W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...OR 355 DEGREES...
09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC...AND
UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 25.5N BETWEEN 42W AND 44.5W...AND
FROM 26.5N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.4N
28.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270 DEGREES...11
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC...AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
66W/67W...FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN
UP BY TROPICAL STORM GRACE AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. NO
ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF AFRICA FROM 07N TO 11N FROM 19W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDSFROM A 35N82W SOUTH
CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 91W
EASTWARD...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N60W TO
28N70W TO 25N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD
FROM 96W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N67W...27N50W...BEYOND 32N41W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ALONG 23N91W 17N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...INLAND
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ITS
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
GUATEMALA NEAR 16N TO 17N ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BETWEEN 86W
AND 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS FROM 11N TO LAND BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND 90W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
PANAMA NEAR 09N81W...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM LAKE MARACAIBO...TO 08N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...TO
11N84W IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.69 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL.
TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED...AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W...AWAY FROM T.D. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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