[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.1N 43.1W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320
DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.8N
27.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR 280 DEGREES...12
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC...AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 09N34W...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
65W/66W...FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 15N20W AND 15N22W...AND FROM 12N30W TO 12N33W AND
11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N34W TO 09N43W 10N50W AND
10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 05N TO
11N FROM 17W EASTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N81W SOUTH
CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE TAMPA FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W EASTWARD...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W...TO 27N70W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N
NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL
SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR
TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND
07N78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 09N77W TO 13N83W. THIS IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.69 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W
AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN HAITI...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN
SOUTHERN HAITI. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL.
TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED...AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W...AWAY FROM T.D. FRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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