[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 36.5W AT 04/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 795 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
22N34W 23N35W TO 22N37W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N17W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N17W TO 9N16W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 16W-21W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 28W
FROM 11N-21N WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W
OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N50W TO
8N48W MOVING SW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE
OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N85W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N17W
TO THE 1014 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N28W TO 12N39W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N54W. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES. SEE ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N93W DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
88W-93W. A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN AT 04/0300 UTC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 93W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER S MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 19N BETWEEN 93W-95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20N83W TO
19N78W. A SECOND UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND
IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO. A INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LOWS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO 19N80W. THE
WESTERLY UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO W CUBA AND INCLUDES
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N76W ALONG 10N80W THEN ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR
9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
LINE FROM NICARAGUA 14N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W
ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. THE SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
PUERTO RICO IS GIVING THE ISLAND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE FRI NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS SAT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N70W. A SHORTWAVE
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH AT 04/0300 UTC FROM 32N78W TO 28N80W AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 75W TO
THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W-70W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 60W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N46W THROUGH A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N51W TO 23N56W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 27N. A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 24N64W AND A SECOND IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N52W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N21W. W/CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS THE WEAK W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES S OFF E FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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