[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N38W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N37W TO 09N37W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY MOIST AREA FROM 05N-17N BETWEEN 27W-44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 07N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N30W TO 11N35W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT
11N39W AND EXTENDS TO 09N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 12W-15W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 15W-22W...
AND FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W. FURTHER
NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO S
LOUISIANA AT 29N92W. SE RETURN FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N-29N
BETWEEN 92W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W PRODUCING
RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO SHIFT E TO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA
...AND PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AIRMASS HEATING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...AND SW GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF BARBADOS NEAR 16N57W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N68W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 30N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N64W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N17W TO 26N30W TO 26N40W TO 30N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 65W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N E OF 30W. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO MOVE
W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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