[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 18N34W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT
WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 32W-38W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
07N28W TO 07N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 09N48W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 11W-20W...AND FROM 06N-11N
BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER THE NE CONUS AND MID-ATLC COAST. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC AS A COLD AND STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS
THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SW TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA SW TO 28N90W.
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND PRECIPITATION-
FREE WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SE WINDS INCREASE W OF 90W WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N62W TO 14N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WEST OF 69W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ONE AREA OF INFLUENTIAL WEATHER
IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 10N. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N70W SW TO 29N75W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N60W THAT
SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N61W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 57W-61W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N44W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 28N35W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 31N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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