[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W TO 09N35W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY MOIST AREA FROM 05N-17N BETWEEN 25W-38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 27W-35W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 09N20W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N27W TO 11N32W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT
11N36W AND EXTENDS TO 09N40W TO 08N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 12W-15W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
26N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N85W TO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO S TEXAS AT 27N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF FRONT. A 1015 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF HIGH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHILE
CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA
...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AIRMASS
HEATING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...CENTRAL NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND
S GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
30N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF LOW. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 29N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N60W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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