[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 30-HOUR FORECAST...BASED ON THE SYNOPSIS THAT IS VALID AT
24/0600 UTC...CONSISTS OF A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N96W...AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N96W. EXPECT
GALE-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.
THE 36-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N26W
AND 05N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
02N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N32W 10N34W 06N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N46W 08N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PATRICIA...THAT NOW IS INLAND IN
MEXICO...AND IT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...RELATED
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-13N66W CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W 13N70W 10N80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W IN
VENEZUELA AND 81W...IN COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 24N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N66W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH...OR A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 13N66W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...TO A 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N61W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 26N62W AND 21N64W. THE
COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N64W TO SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 26N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N33W 27N42W BEYOND 32N46W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N22W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 22N24W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N21W...TO THE LOW
CENTER...TO 19N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N19W 23N23W
18N27W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N37W 25N47W 18N57W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM TO 720 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...TO 18N69W JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
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