[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212256
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N29W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N46W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 10N46W LOW TO 10N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF AND
YUCATAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS N TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST.
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N95W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N97W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE...CONVERGENCE WITH THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...AND A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND
96W...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 170 NM NE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. DRY AIR COVERS THE EASTERN GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
AS A RESULT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF BASIN...EXCEPT WESTERLY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY
MAINLY W OF 95W OVER THE GULF WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO
WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED  THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND SPEED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW
CONVERGING WITH WEAK WESTERLIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVERGENCE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
79W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC APPROACHING
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF
63W S OF 14N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N54W
TO 25N66W TO 21N77W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N60W TO 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N18W TO 26N23W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N18W TO 25N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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